What is a moderate? Oxford: Avoiding extremes; temperate in conduct or expression. Ok, makes sense – in theory. How about in practice? I have heard several suggestions. One is that extremes tend to be loud and pushy, so don’t be loud and pushy; another is that anyone who is moderate lacks conviction: a mugwump, who is someone who sits on a fence with his mug on one side and his wump on the other (political slang; 1884 presidential election for Republican Party reformers who refused to support the candidacy of James G. Blaine). From that I would take it that it depends on the perspective of he/she who is the moderate.
But moderate in what? In the U.S. political environment, where parties develop platforms, the expectation of each is take it or leave it; you are either with us or against us (the U.S. two party system was developed to focus differences at a party level rather than leave them to be fought over publicly in multi-party parliamentary systems, often ending bringing down governments with no-confidence votes). But it has been shown that some 50% of voters call themselves moderate, so what does that mean? Depending on which of the above definitions you prefer, it either means you don’t support either party’s platform or you are turned off by the radical posturing.
I prefer to take the position that there is likely something in between and that the two extremes are simplistic constructs that assume the voter lacks the sophistication to understand the complexity of the issues. This is actually to a great extent true, but it also obfiscates the complexity of the issues and frequently results in unintended consequences, or short term solutions that don’t address the real issues. In either case it is in the party’s interest to pursue both for several reasons. First is the short term view taken of most issues: voters want to see immediate results and terms are relatively short. Another might be that many politicians don’t understand the issues any better than the voters. But there is perhaps an even more important concern: fund raisers prefer strong controversy because it aids their cause and gets results better than alternatives; and let’s face it, in the age of television advertising for candidates it really is all about fund raising – money – unfortunately.
So, controversy. We, the people, thrive on it; we really do. We are opinionated, often emotional, and not deeply knowledgeable about the deeper nuances of an issue, particularly when it comes to unintended consequences. Too often it comes down to, don’t bother me with the facts, just listen to what I have to say. And it has been proven that negative campaigning (advertising) works; we remember something bad better than we do something good. And we don’t particularly care for compromise; in fact we abhor it, because with a compromise “nobody wins” (besides, we don’t understand them or their rationale). Where parties (and their fund raisers) triumph, however, is in playing the platform, particularly by bashing the opposition rather than extolling their candidates’ views, because we all know (or should) that it is far easier to destroy than to build. Take any campaign idea; careful thought and analysis must go into developing a policy recommendation, and what does it take to tear it apart? And what does most campaigning concentrate on? aided and abetted by supporting media, of course.
So how does one organize the self-proclaimed moderates into an effective voting block? it is a serious challenge. Why? because most self-proclaimed moderates possess the same pre-programmed human nature tendencies as the fringe radicals (non-moderates): we are better at criticising than we are at building or developing. But the moderates have another challenge on top of that: platform. Most more flexible thinking moderates do not necessarily feel the same about all the policies in a platform, which is why we created the two-party system. In this sense, and others as well, the party platform is an effective device for projecting and protecting elite power. But that notwithstanding, there is and will always be a profound challenge when it comes to harnessing public opinion – beyond the superficial; it’s like herding cats.
We have a challenge today that, if not unique, it is at least complex and daunting. The amount of information available is part of it, but urbanization is perhaps an even greater part: the America of today is not like the America of 250 years ago for many reasons. The nature of immigration is one; due to motivation for immigrating here: opportunity; money to be blunt – there is less acceptance of the principles that formed our republic, causing immigrants to be more, and often wish to remain, culturally divergent such that in some cases those principles are even rejected out of hand, while the opportunities are still strongly embraced. Urbanization is even more important because whereas the 1779 population was primarily self sufficient, the 2011 mostly urban population is not; it is very difficult for apartment dwellers or even suburban property owners to raise their own food. But the nature of employment is also relevant; losing a job through no individual fault is not something easily handled alone, and even subsistence costs in our nation have become staggering. Then there is the problem of distance, travel, automobiles and fuel. So one has to accept that the challenge has changed.
And one needs to note how focused that challenge has become, dominated as it is by cost – economics; and in many ways that sums up the real challenge of organizing moderates. The complexity of living and governing has become so demanding that not nearly enough voters understand it and its ramifications. But more to the point, it is less Economics 101 that is so difficult to understand, as finance, and particularly international finance. Much as we prefer to bring things down to individual – our – circumstances, global finance doesn’t fit the mold very well for the specific reason that actions that occur, over which we have no control, can and do influence us directly and sometimes brutally. More frighteningly, they often derive from irrational responses of others, driven by greed, panic and ignorance. Those that do not understand, or do not believe the explanations they are being offered, can have great difficulty in finding the trust and respect needed to make the right decisions or support them. Who, after all, does one believe when elite opinions are diametrically opposed or elite leaders and experts prove themselves to be wrong, or worse, inept?
This is the “moderate” challenge. And additionally we have reached the point of basic differences of outlook of life, which goes beyond fringe politics, even though the fringes use it to their advantage. How to deal with the debt/deficit situation points clearly to that basic difference. So does immigration. So does abortion. And so, although no one would admit it, does fundamental morality. The differences in policy statements among us are not that different; but, as has so often been said, the devil is in the details; and the details are devilish to treat via compromise, especially when fantasy, reality and emotion come into play – and conflict.