Constructive Contemplation and The Future
Page 3
Preoccupation with the Future
We are preoccupied with the future, and for good reason; it is where we are headed. And that’s what history
is for, they tell us, since one cannot understand what’s in the future if he doesn’t know what’s been in the past,
and developed a realistic connection between the two. As to prediction, some is better than other, and much is
merely for the sensation of it. But immediately below is a list of books that are occupied with the future, in a not
sensational way, and with reasoning – those are the best kind, as even if they are not correct they provide
insight into what is occurring now, and why.
why, and they tend to blur together after awhile, touching upon similar reality that is likely to shape the future.
They do not necessarily agree; in fact for the most part they approach the subject from different directions, but a
feeling of reality pervades, at least for me, when they are considered in the aggregate. And what is that feeling
of reality? Actually it is varied, and obviously it is shaped by my own prejudices, other readings, and world view,
as it must be.
Huntington talks of culture and the fault lines that exist among world cultures. Kaplan, in something of the
same vein (and acknowledging Huntington) talks of blurring of national boundaries while at the same time
pointing to increased isolation within existing regions, including those of American gated communities.
Friedman’s concentration is on geopolitics and the realities imposed by geography. But I think the thread that
prevails throughout is that dreaming away the realities of life and human nature is not only non-productive but
dangerous, and differences among people due to education, location, culture, wealth and circumstances exist
and will continue well into the future, if not forever. Competition, and in fact wars, will, many suggest, continue
to exist and will not go away, no matter how hard we wish them to.
Allow me to summarize some of what I have taken from their discussions.
Fragmentation of nation states as we know them today is a very real possibility as borders among them are
challenged and ignored. Many are artificial anyway, splitting tribal realities, with many pressures developing to
reshaping them, with all the turmoil that will inevitably incur.
must be faced. Existing political institutions, whether national or international – and including some that are
neither, corporations, for example, in all varieties, including criminal – are experiencing difficulty in handling the
them due to the very differences that are inherent within them. Friction is evident at all levels and violence in
dealing with it is an ever present possibility, particularly when established authority ceases to exist, as has
been painfully evident. Nor do they (the books and their authors) necessarily attempt to suggest specific
solutions for the dealing, although they do address what is likely to happen if they are not addressed.
Dealing requires understanding as well as leadership, and both seem to be in short supply, and narrow,
while self interest reigns as it always will. It is interesting, however, that there seems to be a growing
agreement on the challenges and their causes, at least in what I am reading, although that is a long way from
addressing them effectively, even if it is a place to start. But it is a place to start. Solving the world’s problems
does not seem to be reasonably upon any horizon; dealing with them, however, is an absolute necessity, and it
will be done one way or the other. Beginning with acceptance of reality has a better chance of success than
alternatives.
We are preoccupied with the future, and for good reason; it is where we are headed. And that’s what history
is for, they tell us, since one cannot understand what’s in the future if he doesn’t know what’s been in the past,
and developed a realistic connection between the two. As to prediction, some is better than other, and much is
merely for the sensation of it. But immediately below is a list of books that are occupied with the future, in a not
sensational way, and with reasoning – those are the best kind, as even if they are not correct they provide
insight into what is occurring now, and why.
- The Coming Anarchy/An Empire Wilderness Robert D. Kaplan
The Clash of Civilizations/Culture Matters Samuel P. Huntington
The Future of Freedom Fareed Zacharia
America at the Crossroads Francis Fukyama
The Next 100 Years George Friedman
America Alone/Decline and Fall Mark Steyn/Bruce Thornton
Real Education Charles Murray
The Accidental Guerrilla David Kilcullen
why, and they tend to blur together after awhile, touching upon similar reality that is likely to shape the future.
They do not necessarily agree; in fact for the most part they approach the subject from different directions, but a
feeling of reality pervades, at least for me, when they are considered in the aggregate. And what is that feeling
of reality? Actually it is varied, and obviously it is shaped by my own prejudices, other readings, and world view,
as it must be.
Huntington talks of culture and the fault lines that exist among world cultures. Kaplan, in something of the
same vein (and acknowledging Huntington) talks of blurring of national boundaries while at the same time
pointing to increased isolation within existing regions, including those of American gated communities.
Friedman’s concentration is on geopolitics and the realities imposed by geography. But I think the thread that
prevails throughout is that dreaming away the realities of life and human nature is not only non-productive but
dangerous, and differences among people due to education, location, culture, wealth and circumstances exist
and will continue well into the future, if not forever. Competition, and in fact wars, will, many suggest, continue
to exist and will not go away, no matter how hard we wish them to.
Allow me to summarize some of what I have taken from their discussions.
Fragmentation of nation states as we know them today is a very real possibility as borders among them are
challenged and ignored. Many are artificial anyway, splitting tribal realities, with many pressures developing to
reshaping them, with all the turmoil that will inevitably incur.
- Globalization has become reality, but so have challenges to it, whether they entail ideas,
finance, trade or communications. The strength has been recognized, but also the fragility. A
period of instability is inevitable.
Drugs and terrorism are a reality with which the world must deal. Both, it is realized, are driven
by differences of wealth levels, ignorance, greed, opportunity and global financing.
There is a pervasive breakdown of rule of law, or more appropriately areas in which it has never
effectively developed; there are also cultural differences in how it is viewed and accepted. This
both influence unrest and prevents it from being effectively addressed.
The importance of commodities in the world, and growing projected shortages of them,
including oil and water, are becoming increasingly problematic, while dealing with them
because of the rest of the problems being faced, including security and transportation, are
becoming more and more challenging.
Liberalism in its many aspects, and fundamentalism, a form of conservatism, are pointing to
differences in wealth, education and culture in ways that are disruptive, and are increasingly
showing up in governance and international cooperation.
Oligarchy, reflecting elitism and its pervasiveness throughout the world, whether in support of
liberalism or conservatism, is a fact that must be reckoned with, and will influence any attempt
to deal with world challenges.
Major challenges throughout the world entail differences in outlook regarding social
responsibilities, liberty, security and the nature of authority, leading to increased friction and
international resentment and disagreement.
must be faced. Existing political institutions, whether national or international – and including some that are
neither, corporations, for example, in all varieties, including criminal – are experiencing difficulty in handling the
them due to the very differences that are inherent within them. Friction is evident at all levels and violence in
dealing with it is an ever present possibility, particularly when established authority ceases to exist, as has
been painfully evident. Nor do they (the books and their authors) necessarily attempt to suggest specific
solutions for the dealing, although they do address what is likely to happen if they are not addressed.
Dealing requires understanding as well as leadership, and both seem to be in short supply, and narrow,
while self interest reigns as it always will. It is interesting, however, that there seems to be a growing
agreement on the challenges and their causes, at least in what I am reading, although that is a long way from
addressing them effectively, even if it is a place to start. But it is a place to start. Solving the world’s problems
does not seem to be reasonably upon any horizon; dealing with them, however, is an absolute necessity, and it
will be done one way or the other. Beginning with acceptance of reality has a better chance of success than
alternatives.